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Hodnocení vlivu devizových intervencí ČNB na export České republiky
Prejdová, Jana
This paper is studying forex interventions implemented by the Czech national bank since November 2013 and their effects on the Czech Republic's export. The area of interest of this paper is the period since 2005 to January 2016. The first section of the bachelor thesis studies monetary policy and foreign trade of the Czech Republic in the period of focus. Next part focuses on the change in strategy of central banks after the global financial crisis and theoretic findings of the Marshall-Lerner condition and the J-Curve for foreign trade. In the second main section of this paper there are estimated import and export elasticities using Mandel's (1994) methodology. The elasticities are later used to determine if the Marshall-Lerner condition is met in the studied period for the trade between the Czech Republic and its main trading partners.
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Is import of goods from european countries to Czech republic more or less influenced by changes in nominal and real exchange rates than in non european countries?
Vereš, Jan ; Stroukal, Dominik (advisor) ; Slaný, Martin (referee)
This bachelor thesis analyses the connection between import of goods from foreign countries to Czech Republic and the exchange rate changes. The initial hypothesis of this paper is to prove that the depreciation of domestic currency has positive influence on balance of trade balance. For this purpose there is eight econometric models which were created by using time series from years 2003 to 2016. These models are divided in pairs among four chosen countries. For each country two models were created that follow the development of trade balance between Czech Republic and one of the countries in two different time frames. All the models always use the real effective exchange rate, growth rate of GDP for Czech Republic and growth rate of GDP for one of the countries as explanatory variable. It is connected with the second task of this thesis, which is the analysis of the differences in the behaviour of the models that belong to the countries which are members of the EU and these that are not. The aim is to find out whether the existence of tariffs on imported goods from countries out of the EU causes visible differences in the behaviour of the variables that were included in the models. Based on the outcomes of all eight models the main hypothesis has been proved right for three out of four countries. In the models for Germany, China and France the relation of real exchange rate and trade balance came out as positive in long term, in short term the outcome was ambiguous. The second question of this thesis has been answered, but its added value is questionable. The final models for each state do show some noticeable differences and they can be used to determine if the influence of the change of exchange rates on trade balance is smaller or bigger in the countries where tariffs are used. On the other hand, from the results we can learn that the sample of only four countries is insufficient for the deduction of any conclusions.
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CNB's foreign exchange intervention and their influence on foreign trade of the Czech Republic
Kramoliš, Jan ; Chytil, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Slaný, Martin (referee)
This thesis analyzes impact of domestic currency depreciation caused by foreign exchange intervention of Czech National Bank (CNB) in November 2013 on foreign trade between Czech Republic and Eurozone. The total volume of Czech foreign trade has been growing, but in recent years Czech Republic loses price competitiveness and comparative advantage on the European market. Foreign exchange intervention promote export, but only if the J-curve occurs. Concept of the J-curve states that in the short run depreciation of domestic currency causes decrease of net export and only in the long run increase of net export. The reason is that while in the long run Marshall-Lerner condition is met, in the short run it is not. Thesis verifies the hypothesis that in the short run foreign exchange intervention lead to lower values of net export, while in the long run net export will rise and even above the values at the very beginning of the intervention. To verify this hypothesis is used method of least squares that uses monthly data from the middle of 2005 to the middle of 2015. The results of the study confirm a hypothesis of a fall in net export in the short run due to foreign exchange intervention. However, in the long run hypothesis of the growth of net export compared to the values of net export at the very beginning of the intervention is not confirmed.
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Impact of Czech National Bank´s foreign exchange intervention on the trade balance of the Czech Republic
Blumtritt, Jakub ; Žamberský, Pavel (advisor) ; Jiránková, Martina (referee)
The main objective of this thesis is to analyze and evaluate the effect of the Czech National Bank´s foreign exchange intervention on the trade balance of the Czech Republic. For this purpose a hypothesis was set, that in the short-term the devaluation of the Czech currency causes deterioration of the trade balance and only after some time has passed the trade balance starts to grow. In theory this effect is known as the J-curve hypothesis. The first chapter summarizes theoretical knowledge about monetary policy and exchange rate theory. The second chapter analyzes the development of commodity and territorial structure of the Czech trade balance from 2000 to 2013. The third chapter focuses on the foreign exchange intervention itself and provides arguments for and against this measure taken by the Czech National Bank. The fourth chapter is the most important one for acceptance or rejection of the hypothesis set. It uses the Vector Error Correction Model to estimate the impact of devaluation on the trade balance of Czech Republic with Germany. Subsequently outcomes of this model are compared to the real statistical data of Czech trade.
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Foreing Exchange Intervention of the CNB and their short-term impact on foreign trade
Zubíková, Adéla ; Chytil, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Štěpánek, Pavel (referee)
This thesis analyzes the causes and effects of foreign exchange intervention of Czech National Bank (CNB) in November 2013. Instrument of foreign exchange interventions was chosen because of the limited effectiveness of other instruments of monetary expansion, when the economy is in the liquidity trap. Due to the current low interest rates it's not possible to draw on the experience of using the CNB's foreign exchange interventions between 2001 and 2002, the work therefore presents a comparison of short-term interventions impact with the impact of foreign exchange interventions in Switzerland, whose motive for the announcement of the foreign exchange rate commitment was similar. Based on the analysis of macroeconomic variables before and after the initiation of interventions is examined the hypothesis that foreign exchange interventions didn't have a significant impact on the domestic economy in the short term. Part of this work is to analyze the impact of interventions on foreign trade. Thesis verifies the hypothesis that short-term impact of foreign exchange interventions was consistent with the concept of J-curve. To verify this hypothesis is used time series analysis for selected commodities of foreign trade. The results of the study confirm a hypothesis as the weak impact of the intervention on the domestic economy and the validity of the concept of J-curve for the majority of selected commodities.
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The impact of foreign exchange intervetion of CNB on international trade of Czech Republic
Mikšík, Matěj ; Chytil, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Kadeřábková, Božena (referee)
The goal of this thesis is to analyze the impact of currency depreciation caused by foreing exchange intervention of Czech National Bank in November 2013 on international trade between Czech Republic and Germany. The volume of foreign trade of Czech Republic has been growing, but Czech Republic gradually loses commercial potential. The standart view of the impact of foreign exchange intervention is to stimulate export. But the theoretical concept called J-curve states that currency depreciation leads at first to the decrease of net export in the short run. To increase net export the Marshall-Lerner condition has to be met. The work verifies the hypothesis that after foreign exchange intervention the decrease of net export occurs before improving. Research uses cointegration analysis and Error correction model on the basis of quarter data from the first quarter of year 2005 to the second quarter of year 2014. The results confirms the concept of J-Curve in the bilateral trade of Czech Republic and Germany. In the first two quarters after foreign exchange intervention there is the decrease in net export. The Marshall-Lerner condition is met during the second quarter and the depreciation of the crown leads to the expected growth in net export.
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Analysis of influence of real exchange rate on bilateral trade balance between the Czech Republic and Germany
Dvouletý, Ondřej ; Říhová, Gabriela (advisor) ; Skopeček, Jan (referee)
Study analyses the influence of the real exchange rate on the real trade balance between the Czech Republic and Germany, using quarterly data for the period 2000 -- 2014. Previous empirical studies are summarized and their method is used for this analysis. Data are multiplied by consumer price index to achieve real variables and then transformed into natural logarithms. Used variables are trade balance, export, gross domestic products of the Czech Republic and Germany and dummy variables representing economic crisis during the years 2008 -- 2010 and monetary intervention of the Czech National Bank in autumn 2013. All variables were tested for stationarity and were found to be non-stationary, fortunately cointegration among variables was proved. Results failed to prove existence of J-curve concept. Results indicate, that in the short run after depreciation the real trade balance increases, but after that decreases. Economic crisis during the years 2008 -- 2010 led to decrease of the real trade balance. Intervention of the Czech National Bank did not lead in the short run to a decrease of the real trade balance. Granger causality test between the real export, the real trade balance and the real exchange rate did not prove any causal relationships.
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